Groundhog Day 2012: Punxsutawney Phil is a punk

Posted on 02/02/2012


My favorite part of this article “PUNK”

The official website of Punxsutawney Phil, perhaps not impartial, claims the Groundhog has issued a correct forecast 100% of the time.

AccuWeather’s grade for the groundhog’s accuracy is slightly lower, but still quite respectable.“Because the year’s coldest quarter, also known as meteorological winter, runs from Dec. 5 to March 5, Phil’s accuracy in predicting a longer winter is about 80 percent,” AccuWeather wrote.

But says Phil has gotten it right just 39% of the time.

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center issued the harshest assessment of the accuracy of the “seer of seers” finding “no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years” in its analysis. It concluded: It really isn’t a “bright” idea to take a measure such as a groundhog’s shadow and use it as a predictive meteorological tool for the entire United States.

Noting long-range prediction is hard, at least one scientifically-minded meteorologist expressed resentment over the attention-grabbing rodent.“…Punxsutawney Phil is a punk when it comes to weather forecasting,” blogged Tim McGill, a meteorologist for WGN in Chicago.

via Groundhog Day 2012: Punxsutawney Phil sees shadow, 6 more weeks of winter – Capital Weather Gang – The Washington Post.

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